We are often asked whether the point spread is a smarter play than the money line in soccer. While we generally feel the spread offers better value, this article examines both wager types in detail. For decades, soccer has traditionally been bet using a money line. Also known as 1X2, there are three options to choose from: home win (1), away win (2) and draw (X). For example, the odds on an upcoming Premiership match would look like this:

Everton: +150

Liverpool: +150

Draw: +210

To win his wager, a bettor must correctly pick either the winning team or the draw. If he backs Liverpool and the game ends in a 2-2 draw, for example, the wager loses. Since nearly 30 percent of soccer games end in a draw, it can become frustrating to bet this way.

North Americans are generally uncomfortable with the idea of losing their wager if a game ends in a tie. Fewer people would play blackjack if the dealer won on a push. Soccer is no different.

In Asia, where millions of dollars in soccer bets change hands every week, they shared that sentiment. In response, street bookies invented a form of wagering called hang cheng, or Asian Handicap, which eliminated the draw option. Although slightly more complicated in its Asian form, this was essentially a point spread. On the spread, our sample match would look like this:

Everton pk -110

Liverpool pk -110

This is the same game as listed in the example above with one significant difference: the Draw is removed from the equation. If the game ends in a draw, the wager will be graded a 'push' and stakes refunded. But with smaller risk comes a smaller reward. With the draw no longer a losing wager, the odds on the home and away teams are shortened. But for many soccer bettors fed up with losing money on a draw, that's a small price to pay. (Note that the propositions are listed with the spread accompanying the money line, even when there is none, as is the case here, 'pk')

In recent years, point spread betting has exploded in popularity. Many industry observers - ourselves included - believe it will become the predominant form of soccer wagering in the next five years. Why has it become so popular? The principal reason is value.

For a sportsbook, three-line European moneylines have bigger profit margins than two-line point spreads. Offering three options allows the bookmaker to extract more 'juice' from each line. When creating lines, a sportsbook will offer odds on each team that give it a slight edge, ensuring a profit no matter how the game turns out.

This is called the “Theoretical Hold” and is expressed as a percentage. It represents the combined amount of customers' bets that the bookmaker expects to keep (It's called theoretical because in reality a book rarely has balanced action on all sides).

The table below shows traditional moneylines offered by three British sportsbooks on an upcoming Premiership match. Although each book offers different odds, their theoretical hold ranges from 9.09-11.36 percent. No matter who wins the game, the book can expect to keep at least nine percent of all the money wagered on this match.

Compared to the North American sports, soccer moneylines give the bookmaker a much bigger theoretical hold. The following table shows the point spread odds offered by two U.S.-oriented sportsbooks on an upcoming NFL game. With only two betting options and each side at -110, most books have a theoretical hold of only 4.55 percent – less than half the hold of a soccer money line.

Some U.S.-oriented sportsbooks that offer 'reduced juice' allow a bettor to lay –105 on each side. That works out to a theoretical hold of only 2.38 percent! For us as bettors and handicappers, the smaller the house edge, the better.

When asked why they aren't keener to expand into the North American market, many European sportsbooks employees will say it's simply not as profitable, since most sports bets have only two options: home and away win. Because they are used to higher hold percentages, some British sportsbooks offer NFL football sides at -120.

As a result of increased competition, some European books reduce their theoretical hold on traditional moneylines. But the moneyline remains the most lucrative betting format from a sportsbooks perspective.

Another drawback with moneylines is away wins are much rarer in soccer than in other sports. Because visiting teams will often draw rather than win outright, it can be frustrating to play on the away team. In the Premiership 48 percent of games are home wins, 27 percent are draws and 25 percent are away wins. With the home team winning roughly half the time, a point spread of +0.5 is perfectly suited to soccer.

Our earlier example of Aston Villa vs. Birmingham illustrates this point. What if you felt strongly that Aston Villa wouldn't win that match? Before handicap bets were available, bettors seeking to back Birmingham at the equivalent handicap of +0.5 had to place two separate bets: one on Birmingham and the other on the draw:

Birmingham +300 ------- Risk $58.51 to win $175.53

Draw +210 ---------------- Risk $75.49 to win $158.52

If the game results in either a Birmingham win or a draw, there is a profit of $100. Even using the best odds available, the bettor would still have to risk $134 to win $100. On the spread, backing Birmingham at +0.5 would cost only $110 (see table below). But the two separate bets are not just poor value; they also require inconvenient calculations to ensure an equal win amount on both sides. Wagering amounts like $58.51 and $75.49 are messy and awkward.

The point spread offers much better value because of a lower theoretical hold. We can risk -110 instead of -134 on Birmingham because the house edge is 4.55 percent instead of 11.36 percent. Intense competition among sportsbooks in recent years has allowed us to secure even better odds. Most Asian books offer reduced juice on soccer. Pinnacle Sportsbook recently began posting lines as low as four-cents on soccer spreads (lay -102), with a theoretical hold of only 0.98 percent!

Unlike the major North American sports, soccer is a very low scoring game. Many hockey fans complain that the NHL averages only about five goals per game. The average European soccer game will have about 2.5 goals.

From a handicapping perspective, this is huge. Since goals are at a premium, a half-point on the spread will often make the difference between a winning and losing wager. A half-point is usually worth 5-10 cents. But in soccer, it can cost as much as 100.

In the Aston Villa vs. Birmingham match, you can back Birmingham +0.5 on the spread at -110, or on the money line (-0.5) at roughly +300. The following table is a rough guide between money line prices and their point spread equivalents:

Just like puck lines in hockey, or run lines in baseball, the soccer point spread makes wagering more flexible. Those who are uncomfortable laying –300 on a heavy favorite can play it at -1.5 on the spread, laying only 110.

Likewise, taking an underdog at +1.5 is a winning wager if the favorite wins by only one goal. Unlike our earlier example of backing Birmingham +0.5, it is impossible to replicate a +1.5 line using a combination on money line plays. In the Super Bowl, seven-point favorites New England beat Carolina 32-29 in 2004. If the moneyline were the only wagering option, it would have been impossible to bet Carolina +7.

English soccer has the sharpest lines of any sport in the world. It is even a tougher nut to crack than the NFL. With close to a billion fans watching the Premiership across Europe, Asia and North America, linesmakers cannot afford to be careless.

As a handicapper, you must exploit every edge possible to have a profitable season. While point spreads generally have better value, money lines will sometimes be a smarter play. Both wager types can complement each other, but each situation is unique and it's up to the bettor to decide which one to use.